Ernesto

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NHC Gulf of Mexico Offshore Waters Forecast
Posted on Saturday December 07, 2024


022
FZNT24 KNHC 070202
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-071415-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough
seas follow a cold front that extends from 26N82W to 25N98W. The
front will reach the Florida Straits by early Sat and then
dissipate while the stationary portion of the front lift northward
as a warm front before dissipating Sat night. Broad high pressure
will build north of the area behind the front into Mon,
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin.
Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is forecast to enter the far
northwest Gulf Tue night, followed by strong to gale-force winds
and rapidly building seas. The front is forecast to reach from
Venice, Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon and exit the basin Wed evening.

$$

GMZ040-071415-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.OVERNIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NE to E
swell. Scattered showers.
.SAT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Numerous
showers and scattered tstms.
.SUN...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms.
.SUN NIGHT...S to SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...S to SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NW to N 15 to 20 kt
early in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...N to NE winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft in N to NE
swell.
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in N to NE
swell, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late.

$$

GMZ041-071415-
SW Louisiana Offshore Waters including Flower Garden Bank Marine
Sanctuary-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.OVERNIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SUN...SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON...S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to
6 to 9 ft in NW swell late.
.WED...N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in NW to N swell.
.WED NIGHT...N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in N
swell.

$$

GMZ056-071415-
N Central Gulf Offshore Waters-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.OVERNIGHT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW to W winds 10 kt, shifting to NW 15 to 20 kt
late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...NW to N winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW to N
swell.
.WED NIGHT...N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft in NW to
N swell.

$$

GMZ057-071415-
NE Gulf N of 26N E of 87W-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.OVERNIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SUN...E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.WED...W of 85W, NW winds 20 to 25 kt. E of 85W, W winds 10 to
15 kt, becoming NW 20 to 25 kt early in the afternoon. Seas 4 to
6 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft in W to NW swell early in the
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NW swell.

$$

GMZ058-071415-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED...

.OVERNIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell.
Scattered showers.
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE swell. Scattered
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell.
Scattered tstms.
.SUN...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W of 96W, N winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 30 to
35 kt late. E of 96W, N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing
to 20 to 30 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to
10 ft in NE swell late.
.WED...N winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft in N swell.
.WED NIGHT...W of 96W, N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. E of 96W, N to
NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming NE 10 to 15 kt late.
Seas 8 to 12 ft in N to NE swell.

$$

GMZ045-071415-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 91W and 94W-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED...

.OVERNIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
showers.
.SAT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
tstms.
.SUN...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.MON...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S of 24N, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming NW
to N 10 to 15 kt late, Seas 2 to 4 ft. N of 24N, W to
NW winds 10 kt, becoming NW to N 20 to 25 kt late, Seas
2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft late.
.WED...N winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft in NW to N swell.
.WED NIGHT...N to NE winds 25 kt, shifting to NE 15 to 20 kt
late. Seas 9 to 13 ft in N swell.

$$

GMZ046-071415-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 91W-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.OVERNIGHT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SAT...NE to E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
showers.
.SUN...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED...S of 24N, NW winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to N 20 to 30 kt
early in the afternoon, Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 7 to 11 ft
early in the afternoon. N of 24N, NW to N winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas
6 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 12 ft early in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NW to
N swell.

$$

GMZ047-071415-
SE Gulf from 22N to 26N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.OVERNIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
.SUN...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED...SW winds 10 kt, becoming NW 20 to 25 kt early in the
afternoon. S of 24N, seas 2 to 4 ft. N of 24N, seas 3 ft or less,
building to 5 to 7 ft early in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in NW to N swell.

$$

GMZ048-071415-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED...

.OVERNIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable winds less than 5 kt S of 21N W of 95W, and E
10 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered
showers.
.SUN...S of 21N W of 95W, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming
E to SE 10 kt early in the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds 10 to
15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S of 21N W of 95W, NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt late,
Seas 3 ft or less. Winds NE to E 10 kt early in the
evening. Elsewhere, N winds 25 to 30 kt late, Seas 3 ft
or less, building to 4 to 6 ft late.
.WED...NW to N winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft in NW to N
swell.
.WED NIGHT...NW to N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft in N
swell.

$$

GMZ049-071415-
Central Bay of Campeche-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED...

.OVERNIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less,
building to 3 to 5 ft late.
.SAT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers.
.SUN...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED...S of 20N, N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 35 kt
early in the afternoon, Seas 3 ft or less, building to 7 to 10 ft
early in the afternoon. N of 20N, N winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6
ft, building to 10 to 15 ft early in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N to NE winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft in NW to
N swell.

$$

GMZ050-071415-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
902 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

.OVERNIGHT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SUN...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NE to E early in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE late. Seas
2 to 4 ft.
.TUE...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W of 90W, NE winds 10 kt. E of 90W, E winds 10 to
15 kt early in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt.
Seas 3 ft or less.
.WED...W of 90W, NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 25 to 30 kt
early in the afternoon, Seas 3 ft or less, building to 7 to 10 ft
early in the afternoon. E of 90W, variable winds less than 5 kt,
becoming N 20 to 25 kt early in the afternoon, Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N to NE winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft W of 90W,
and 7 to 11 ft E of 90W.

$$

Forecaster ERA

Tropical Storm Ernesto has gradually weakened down to a tropical depression as it has moved into inland Mexico, killing 7 people in its wake.  It has been raining in the flood-prone areas of Mexico’s southern Gulf region where Ernesto had been situated at.  In Veracruz state, a teenage girl who had been riding in a car had been killed early Friday morning when she had been caught in a river current and a 62-year old man had been struck by lightning.  According to the Veracruz state civil protection department in Mexico, 3 members of a family had died Thursday night at a time when strong winds caused a tree to fall on their car.  The deceased included an 8-year old child, his mother and his 38-year old father.

In neighboring Tabasco state, two fishermen had been drowned as Ernesto had passed through the state, according to Tabasco state Governor Andres Granier in a meeting with reporters.  The Governor had said that Ernesto’s winds had ripped apart rooftops from homes in the area.  However at a time when many of the residents had refused to evacuate in the fear of losing their properties, “People have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them,”  he said.

Tropical Storm Ernesto had been spotted ashore early Thursday near the waters where oil rigs are operated upon by the state oil company in the region of the southern part of Gulf of Mexico.  As a result, the government has closed the port of Veracruz as well as the smaller ports of Coatzacoalcos and Alvarado.

According to the National Hurricane Center of the US, Ernesto had sustained winds that decreased to 35 mph by early Friday.  Ernesto has continued to weaken but according to the center, it can continue to dole out rainfall as it dissipates.