Hurricane 2014 Season Predicted to be Another Quiet Season
Hurricane 2014 Season Prediction
Residents of coastal areas will be relieved to hear that top forecasters from Colorado State University predict another quiet hurricane season in 2014, suggesting that nine tropical storms will form, but only 3 will become hurricanes.
Colorado State’s team predicts a 35% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. Coast. In the East Coast, including Florida, the chance is only 20%, and only 19% for the Gulf Coast.
But don’t put away your hurricane emergency stockpile just yet! This year’s forecast follows two consecutive years of unsuccessful predictions. Last year, only two of the nine predicted hurricanes ended up forming, and in 2012, the number of hurricanes doubled how many were predicted.
Could El Niño Help Tame the Atlantic?
Part of the reasoning behind this years’ forecast is the prediction of a moderate to strong El Niño event. El Niño is a climate change, occurring every two to seven years, which causes warmer waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean and generally suppresses hurricane activity. The El Niño watch was prompted by a recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds, which to seem to have caused a warming trend during the last month or two. The general consensus is that there is at least a 70% chance of an El Niño forming in the spring or summer of 2014.
During a strong El Niño in 1997, only three hurricanes formed out of seven named storms.
In fact, a study based on average yearly hurricanes show that this prediction appears to be consistent with past years for average hurricanes formed in El Niño years. (See below)
|Average||El Niño Avg.||Average||El Niño Avg.|
The first named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. But if Colorado State’s predictions are accurate, we shouldn’t have to come fact to face with too many of them.
That said, don’t get caught off guard. Make sure that regardless of predictions, you’re still prepared with this hurricane preparedness guide. Check back at national-hurricane-center.org, for more updates on upcoming storms!